Bulldogs and Sooners and storylines, oh my; and Auburn-UGA revisited, a trip down UGA's recent past, and Mouthings

Bulldogs and Sooners and storylines, oh my; and Auburn-UGA revisited, a trip down UGA's recent past, and Mouthings

Jan. 1, 2018, 3:45 p.m.

          I think I’ll enjoy the two weeks of Super Bowl hype substantially more than the breathlessness of December.

          For a program that talks about being elite, a whole lotta folks and media are acting like they’re stunned and giddy and wide-eyed that this team is in an elite position.

          Sure, a generation and a half has passed since Georgia played for a national title, and it’s still not reserving hotel rooms for the 2017 season’s version just yet.

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          The history lesson is below.

          You’ve spent weeks reading – or stopped reading – the examinations of the Rose Bowl, and the redundancy of such examinations and overcomplications.

          It says here that the “weakness” will be what determines the winner of Oklahoma and Georgia.

          That means Oklahoma’s defense will come up with the clutch, momentum-changing play or series, or that Georgia’s passing game will do that.

          No, the Sooners haven’t played a defense like Georgia’s.

          No, the Bulldogs haven’t played an offense like Oklahoma’s.

          Georgia’s resume isn’t any more imposing than any of the Final Four.

          The Bulldogs played four ranked teams, including Auburn twice. The Sooners played four ranked teams, including TCU twice.

          The Bulldogs played seven bowl teams, not counting Auburn twice. The Sooners played eight bowl teams, not counting TCU twice.

 

          Oklahoma has some advantages, other than the quarterback.

          The Sooners will likely be at least decent in pass coverage when the Bulldogs throw, since they’ve defended many passing teams.

          They have faced some quality RBs in J.K. Dobbins of Ohio State (1,403 yards) and David Montgomery of Iowa State (1,146 yards) and Justin Crawford of West Virginia (1,061).

          The Sooners will respect UGA’s ground game, but they shan’t be shaking in their cleats.

          The Bulldogs have faced only five FBS quarterbacks averaging 200 yards a game, only one above 250, and only three in the top 50 in efficiency.

          Note that Vandy’s Kyle Shurmur is on both lists.

 

          And, of course, Georgia has some advantages, other than the RBs.

          The defense has seen Jake Fromm a bit in practice, and he is fourth nationally in efficiency – albeit with fewer attempts than all but four of the top 50, including Alabama’s Jalen Hurts – and that will help.

          The often confusing stubbornness to pass could very easily be the difference today, because Georgia has big-time and well-rested tight ends, so OU doesn’t have many looks at the potential there in the passing game.

          The month off, as you’ve no doubt heard, favors the defense, and it does. Throw in that Mayfield hasn’t been close to 100 percent for the most important portion of preparation, and it opens the door for a sluggish OU start.

          D’Andre Swift could hardly touch the ball and be of major impact as a decoy, because the dude may have drawn as much attention from OU’s defensive staff as Nick Chubb and Sony Michel.

          The Bulldogs did get in a track meet with Missouri, and passed their way to a win. Fromm was 18 for 26 for 326 yards, two scores and a pick. Of course, he threw seven passes a week later, but we’ve been there.

          And there is Roquan Smith. The potential chess game with him possibly going man-to-man – I foresee delayed blitzes on his part when he reads the blocking and pocket a certain way – is interesting.

          Plus, he can chase Mayfield down, something Mayfield probably hasn’t seen much of this season.

 

          But there are questions.

          Can Oklahoma tackle as fundamentally sound as Auburn did in its win over Georgia? Best way to slow down a running game is to, well, slow down the runners, and that’s by simple tackling and not worrying about stripping the ball.

          Can Georgia’s secondary play disciplined enough with a squirrelly quarterback who can move around and then throw?

          Will it be the good Georgia or the flag-inspiring Georgia that shows up?

          Will Georgia come out more balanced to try and unsettle Oklahoma a little bit, be aggressive and strike first?

          What might Oklahoma take from Missouri’s ability to throw the ball so well against Georgia?

          Does Oklahoma change things a little bit out of the gate to see how healthy Mayfield is?

 

          Some numbers to note:

          Oklahoma is first nationally with 583.3 yards a game on offense, Georgia is fourth in total defense at 270.9 a game.

          The best defenses, statistically, the Sooners have faced are No. 9 Ohio State No. 19 TCU. 

          The best offenses, statistically, the Bulldogs have faced are No. 8 Missouri and No. 25 Notre Dame.

          Georgia is 34th nationally with 433.6 yards a game on offense, Oklahoma is 59th nationally in total defense at 384.8 yards a game.

          The best defenses, statistically, Georgia has faced are No. 10 Mississippi State and No. 12 Auburn.

          The best offenses, statistically, Oklahoma has faced are No. 2 Oklahoma State and No. 7 Ohio State.

          Yeah, we could go ‘round and ‘round.

          So a quick special teams glance shows Georgia has an edge in punt returns and punt coverage, kickoff returns and coverage, and field goals are basically even.

          The guess here is that we’ll see more yards than scoring, with some failed fourth downs and a turnover or two, and field goals.

          I wonder if this is the game Georgia opens the playbook after the first quarter, since – as you’ve read here for months – there’s no QB play Fromm can’t make when given reasonable time. He didn’t have that against Auburn, a Georgia strategic flaw to seemingly be unprepared for a major pass rush. He wasn’t allowed to be mobile in that game, except to escape.

        Georgia has shown more of an ability to survive Oklahoma-type tempo, ala the Missouri game. Ohio State is probably the most similar OU opponent to Georgia, but Iowa State is a run-first team and beat OU in Norman.

         Still, the Rose Bowl is going to feel like Notre Dame Stadium. And we know what happened there.

        Look for the same, with more points, like Georgia 37, Oklahoma 31.

 

AUBURN-UGA REVISITED (BECAUSE I’VE BEEN MEANING TO)

 

          Dueling swagger aside, boy, I’d have loved to see Auburn and Georgia play again. Those first two games were pretty good on one side or if you didn’t care who won but just liked watching some good football.

          The reality – sorry to use that dirty word - is that Auburn and Georgia are pretty damn even in the final regular-season weeks. Note the two-game numbers:

          Auburn outscored Georgia by six.

          Auburn outrushed Georgia 351-284 on four more rushes, taking a 4.6-3.9 yard advantage per carry.

          Auburn outpassed Georgia in completion percentage (by 1.2 points), while Georgia did better in yards per attempt (7.2-6.9).

          Auburn had 10 more first downs, and four fewer penalties – not as big a difference as you thought, huh? – for 98 fewer yards – about as big a difference as you thought, huh?

          Auburn averaged 5.57 yards per play, Georgia 5.25.

          Dismount the high horse, folks. You’re even. Deal with it.

          Also deal with the fact that one won the bigger game, which wouldn’t have happened if the first game hadn’t taken place.

          Please, it’s really not a bad thing to win with a hint of humility and thanks, and to point out that the other team is pretty decent, too.

          Bottom line: you both got smacked around by the other one. Period.

          “Ohhh, but one was at Jordan-Hare!”
          With the same 100-yard field, 11 on 11, etc. One group outplayed one one time, and the other team did the same the next time on a neutral field.

          If Auburn and Georgia played 10 times, it would be typical Auburn and Georgia: tight.

          Nobody – nobody honest and objective – figured Auburn would do what it did in game 1 and that Georgia would do almost as well in the second one.

          If Auburn’s coaching staff remains intact, it’s safe to say that the Tigers are back as a major player in the West. If not, we’ll see, but there’s clearly a heap of talent over there.

 

REALLY AND TRULY, THIS AIN’T THAT NEW FOR UGA

          Georgia is back, at least temporarily, to where it’s been. We don't know.

          But this isn't really new.

          Let's stroll down Memory Lane. No, come on. It's good. Of course, it's reality, so many of you will step out quickly.

          Kirby Smart has not rewritten Georgia football history. This season isn't, in reality, anywhere near the eclipse people are making it out to be.

          We'll know in three years if that's the case.

          Too much has been thrown around - the homerism and hyperbole is smothering. Georgia has, yes, thumped people, which it didn't do regularly under Mark Richt.

          But in keeping with this nation's citizens completely erasing their mental hard drive - except when they don't:

          First year at UGA: Mark Richt, 8-4.

          First year at UGA: Kirby Smart, 8-5.

          Second year through the SEC championship: Richt, 12-1.

          Second year through the SEC championship: Smart, 12-1.

          K? K. Like Richt, don't like Richt, whatever. Facts are facts, and everybody loves the guy doing "better" than his predecessor and giving some light at the end of a perceived tunnel. It did seem like Georgia was ahead of schedule. Now maybe it's simply onnnn schedule.

          My scouting report when Smart was hired was simple: No idea how good a coach he is because he's had an executive defensive coordinator - and almost psychotic control-freak boss - above him, and what normal person didn't look at the situation and just chalk it all up to Saban running things?

          Smart had been attached to Nick Saban's hip for all but one year since 2004. How much power do we believe Saban actually handed over?

          And like none of Bear's underlings were Bear Jr., Smart is no Saban Jr. Will he become that? Could become a version, his own version. But remember, Saban wasn't Saban for a long time. It's hard for people to see who Smart really is because everybody compares him to Saban or chalks up all of his knowledge and success to Saban, which isn't fair. I'm quite sure Smart knew a fair amount of football a long time ago, but he most likely grew in the overall running of a program.

          And I'm pretty sure Smart has been mighty intense for awhile.

          One doesn't come Sabanlike in one's second year of coaching. Smart will succeed or fail on his own merits, and it's too early to determine which way that'll go. And we won't know until we know, which won't be this year, as great as it is.

          Know this. Richt's second season didn't involve wretched Florida and Tennessee teams that fired their head coaches in the middle of the season, or a Georgia Tech team that wasn't bowl eligible.

          Those Bulldogs under a second-year head coach and former coordinator had one regular-season loss and won the SEC championship by 27 points. These Bulldogs, under the same coach’s resume, won the SEC championship by 21 points.

          Those Bulldogs averaged 32.1 points a game and gave up 15.1.

          These Bulldogs average 34.9 points a game and give up 13.2. Let’s note the absence of Florida and Tennessee as remotely relevant this year compared to 2002.

          Those Bulldogs got 139.6 yards a game rushing, 3.6 a carry.

          These Bulldogs get 263.5 yards a game rushing, 5.8 a carry.

          Those Bulldogs gave up 114 yards a game rushing, 3.0 a carry.

          These Bulldogs gave up 112.6 yards a game rushing, 3.5 a carry.

          Those Bulldogs averaged 62.8 yards a game in penalty yardage.

          These Bulldogs average 56.2 yards a game in penalty yardage.

          Those Bulldogs on average had 18.3 completions on 31.8 pass attempts a game, averaging 245.4 yards a game.

          These Bulldogs on average have 11.5 completions on 18.8 pass attempts a game, averaging 170.1 yards a game.

          Total offense in 2002: 70.1 plays a game, 5.5 yards a play, 384.9 yards a game.

          Total offense in 2017: 64.5 plays a game, 6.7 yards a play, 433.6 yards a game.

          Total defense in 2002: 66.7 plays a game, 4.5 yards a play, 303.5 yards a game allowed.

          Total defense in 2017: 60.8 plays a game, 4.5 yards a play, 270.9 yards  a game allowed.

          So, no, it’s not quite time to erect a statue or proclaim legend or all-time whateverness. And, again, it’s OK to admit the former coach wasn’t bad while hoping the successor doesn’t hit the same ceiling.

          The guess here is he won’t. As long as he doesn’t go a recruiting class and sign only one offensive linemen and signs many fewer clear knuckleheads (Ohhhh my Lord) and shows more logical roster management (which wouldn’t be hard).

          Enjoy the present, remember the past, prepare for the future.

 

LOUGHDMOUTHINGS

          And on the other end, probably of OU-UGA is Clemson-Alabama.

          Should be a little more old school, and Alabama will show it deserved that fourth spot because the Tide are healthier, especially on defense.

          Since we know Clemson will come up with some funky stuff, you wonder if Alabama will unclench a little bit and try some funkification. Again, pretty even teams, and no, the other two teams have just about nothing to do with this one since most of the protagonists are different.

          My gut is saying Alabama 27-24. …                

          Dear broadcastcomtwits (today, ESPN radio): stop saying that “if you give Nick Saban a month to …” because it’s a staggeringly stupid comment.

          For one, because it’s not necessarily true, if you’d read something or remember something.

          For another, because if you give anybody a month, they have a chance to tweak things. But coaches are inherently conservative in their jobs. They may tweak, but won’t admit it, won’t say it’s necessary.

          The month off has little to do with about anything, except getting healthy and getting younger players some practice time.

          Players gotta play and execute the simple stuff. Nobody rewrites their playbook because they have the time to. Almost nobody has the inclination.

          Bowl teams win just like teams win in the regular season. And one gimmick play or temporary gimmick scheme doesn’t win a game unless it’s in the last minute or two.

          So stop saying stuff like that. Plus, Saban doesn’t need a month of prep and video to beat your ass. Neither does Dabo. …

          Mike Leach sure is a lot less wacky and entertaining when his team gets smacked, isn’t he? No, he’s not a fit almost anywhere in the SEC. …

          Anybody who was stunned at Mark Richt’s outrage in the Orange Bowl shouldn’t be, but if you have a preconception and can’t change it, then you were.

          But many have known for a long time that Richt’s non-public vocabulary is a whole lot more colorful than people think. And just because the camera always shows him being, you know, under control, doesn’t mean he doesn’t lose it a fair amount of the time, just less than many who get the camera time because they lose it a lot.

          He tweeted out an apology for making it easy for amateur lipreaders: “After seeing TV copy of our game I want to apologize for my language and the putting of my hands on the official and my staff. I did not show the proper respect to the authorities of our game.”

          His son Jon topped him later on: “Y’all think @MarkRicht was mad then... you should have seen him when I failed Latin
back in middle school.”