Success rate for state's Division I baseball teams - and postseason potential - on a rollercoaster

By Michael A. Lough

The Sports Report

centralgasports@gmail.com
 

            Less than two weeks ago, the postseason picture for Georgia in Division I college baseball looked pretty good.

            So good, in fact, that if the status quo lasted, 2018 could easily have been the first time Mercer, Georgia, and Georgia Tech made the NCAA Tournament in the same year.

            Georgia was a top-10 RPI team, Mercer was 33rd, and Georgia Tech was 38th.

            At that point, Baseball America’s guesstimation had Mercer, Georgia, and Georgia Tech making the NCAA tournament. It had Georgia as a host and Georgia Tech as a visitor to Athens as a 3 seed, along with UCLA and Kent State.

            It projected Mercer to a 3 seed and heading south to Gainesville with Florida, Creighton, and Columbia.

            Things have very much changed, and not for the better, entering Tuesday’s play (Clemson at Georgia and College of Charleston at Georgia Southern)

            Georgia has maintained, and is No. 7 in the NCAA’s RPI. Mercer, though, dropped from 33 to 66 and now to 83rd. Tech went from 38 to 30 and now to 48th.

            Kennesaw State has improved nearly 40 spots in three weeks.

            Baseball America ‘s next tournament projection update is Wednesday, and it’s likely that the only similarity to two weeks ago is that Georgia is still a host.

            The state’s other Division I teams’ past three weeks: Georgia State: 76 to 68 to 89; Georgia Southern: 108 to 100 to 110; Savannah State: 286 to 290 to 292.

            Mercer’s chances of getting an at-large bid are gone, the Bears having only one game left – top-ranked Florida – that can help their RPI at all..

            Ditto Georgia Tech, most likely. Four of the Yellow Jackets’ next five games are against top-10 teams: three at North Carolina and one against Georgia. Then the Jackets have one more game against Georgia and three against No. 22 Duke.

            Tech would pretty much have to go at least 6-2 against those teams, lose a max of two other games, and hope for some help to get an RPI safely under 40 to have a chance for an at-large call.

            Kennesaw State (Atlantic Sun), Savannah State (MEAC), Georgia State and Georgia Southern (Sun Belt) will have to win their conference tournaments to advance to the postseason.

            The A-Sun has three teams in the top 50: no. 24 Stetson, No. 38 Jacksonville, and No. 50 FGCU. KSU makes for four in the top 75.

Samford tops the SoCon at 78, with ETSU 87 and UNCG 97.

WarrenNolan.com’s RPI ranks the Sun Belt seventh, A-Sun 10th, and Southern 16th, out of 31 Division I conferences.

            Mercer has non-conference games left at Georgia State, at Florida, at home against Alcorn State (three games), and Georgia State.

            Kennesaw State can improve its at-large stock, in and out of conference, with nine games left against the A-Sun teams ranked ahead of the Owls (Jacksonville is 62nd), plus Georgia Tech, No. 4 Clemson, Georgia State and Georgia Southern.

            The Owls just took two of three from Stetson, which Baseball America last week, on Wednesday, had as a 3 seed, A-Sun champ, and at Florida State.