GHSA's Post Season Playoff Rankings offer clarity and confusion, but Central Georgia's field is almost set ... almost

By Michael A. Lough

The Sports Report

centralgasports@gmail.com

          The GHSA football playoffs officially start next week, but they’ve unofficially been going on the past few weeks.

          And Friday is a playoff night for some teams, who need wins – and the right help from their opponents and their opponents’ opponents – to get a 10th game.

          The equation used by the GHSA for the Post Season Rankings is complex, so there’s more to guessing than just who won, and who won head to head.

          Many teams will be sweating things out Friday even if they win, because for bubble teams – and there are several in Central Georgia – a win doesn’t necessarily mean they’re in.

          Unofficially – and analytically – Central Georgia appears assured of 19 playoff teams throughout six classifications, with about a half dozen on the bubble, within five spots of No. 32, because that’s how many teams make it in each class.

          The equation is complicated, much more than head to head results. Strength of schedule is part, as is strength of schedule of opponents.

          There are teams on the bubble to get in, and within a spot or two of hosting a first-round game. And while it’s too deep to look at, results also impact the brackets, so teams are already looking down the road to potential matchups.

          There are no byes. The first round is next week. The Class A, 4A, and 6A championships are on Dec. 15 and AA, 3A, and 4A on Dec. 16, starting at 10:30 a.m. each day at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Tickets are $23 each day.

Class 6A

In: No. 16 Houston County needs a win and a little help to clinch a first-round home game.

Bubble/out: No. 32 Veterans and No. 33 Northside are pretty out, with the Warhawks hosting No. 4 Coffee and the Eagles welcoming No. 1 Thomas County Central. They’re huge underdogs.

Class 5A

In: No. 22 Jones County will be on the road, as will No. 25 Perry, win or lose against Warner Robins.

In: No. 25 Perry has plenty of momentum entering its trip up the road to Warner Robins.

Bubble: No. 31 Warner Robins needs to beat Perry to barely get in. The Demons are out with a loss, unless teams 30 through 35 also lose.

Class 4A

In: No. 2 Peach County faces No. 1 Troup, a result of which won’t change the rating only slightly – merely swapping the spots – with a Trojans’ win.

In: No. 8 Baldwin is pretty much assured of a first-round home game regardless of the result against No. 24 Spalding

In: No. 11 Mary Persons has lost to No. 8 by 5, No. 2 by 8, and No. 1 by 3.

In: No. 22 West Laurens is playing for seeding against No. 33 Windsor Forest, which is playing to get in.

In: No. 23 Howard can carry momentum into Game 11 by beating Westside.

Out: No. 41 Westside, No. 46 Upson-Lee

Class 3A

In: No. 10 Northeast is hurt by strength of schedule in region play.

In: No. 20 Lamar County is solidly in, set for the road.

Bubble: No. 29 Washington County has finished the regular season, and will sweat the night out since the Golden Hawks can’t help themselves.

Out: No. 49 Rutland, No. 50 Central, No. 57 Southwest

Class AA

In: No. 3 Dublin can’t gain any ground on its own, taking on No. 42 East Laurens

In: No. 4 Bleckley County is done and waiting.

In: No. 11 Jasper County is 17th overall in the class and jumps up with the elimination of private schools. A loss to Jefferson County could be enough to put the Hurricanes on the road.

In: No. 12 Putnam County can jump rival Jasper County with a win over No. 10 Social Circle.

In: No. 19 Dodge County went from a bubble first-round host to solidly in, but on the road.

In: No. 20 ACE Charter hosts Dodge County, and both need good games to take some frustration-countering momentum into the playoffs.

Bubble/in: No. 27 East Laurens is a big underdog against Dublin, and is in a bubble logjam.

Class A

In: No. 1 Taylor County is unlikely to lose this spot, since Taylor County is quite likely to win this week.

In: No. 7 Macon County is in a stable position, and won’t fall back much at all if it stalls against Chattahoochee County

In: No. 24 Hawkinsville is in, despite a two-game losing streak.

Bubble/out: No. 35 Wilkinson County is done and can’t help itself.

Bubble/out: No. 36 GMC Prep needs a win over No. 27 Glascock County and a good bit of help.

Out: No. 40 Hancock Central, No.41 Crawford County, No. 44 Twiggs County