Bubble bursts for Bears: Schedule strength dooms Mercer in NCAA Tournament selection process, big season is over
By Michael A. Lough
The Sports Report
centralgasports@gmail.com
There are headlines a program doesn’t want to make, and that’s where Mercer is.
“Highest-rated RPI team not to get an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament” is just such a headline, and Mercer’s attached to it.
The last team meeting of the year ended up being the most brutal, watching Monday’s selection show stroll through teams with lower RPIs get picked, while watching the closest locations – Atlanta, Athens, Auburn, Gainesville – fly by with other selections.
When the field at Florida State didn’t include Mercer, the Bears’ odds dropped dramatically. Then Starkville – home to Mercer’s 2013 trip – came and went.
West Virginia was the final host site updated, and when Kentucky was the third team noted, that was officially it.
The social media debate rolled on, with gripes about Kentucky, Troy, N.C. State, Texas State, among others, getting in over Mercer.
What did Mercer in, for the most part, wasn’t a surprise: non-conference strength of schedule.
“Really looking at the strength of the schedule and especially non-conference strength of the schedule,” said selection committee chairman Michael Alford on ESPN after the selections. “That was something that stood out to the (committee), and you compare them to other teams like Santa Barbara - who intentionally went out and scheduled tough - you look at Troy, intentionally scheduled tough.
“And looking at the geographic region where Mercer is located, we felt that they had those opportunities to go out and get some games to improve their RPI and strength of schedule,.
“They had a fantastic season. But when you compare them to other teams who went out and really intentionally scheduled tough games, we felt that the other teams got the nod.”
Despite an embarrassing 1-2 visit to the Southern Conference tournament as the top seed, Mercer’s RPI dropped from only 26th to 28th, and stayed there through dozens of conference tournament games throughout the nation.
Among those who put forth such ever-changing guesses on tournament fields, there was no consensus either way about Mercer’s fate, other than it was going to be close, very close.
The Bears stormed into the Southern Conference tournament having won the regular-season title, and with a consensus top-30 RPI and a record number of wins and home wins.
They headed home Friday afternoon after a fairly stunning and humbling 1-2 visit to Greenville, The Citadel staggering the Bears with 9-2 and 14-4 wins, a 9-8 win over Wofford in the middle.
The good news was that the impact on its nifty RPI was minimal, dropping only a few spots, and hadn’t changed from No. 28 by the time of the selection show.
Last four in vs. Mercer
Team W-L RPI NC RPI SOS NC SOS Q1 Q4
Mercer 44-15 28 43 118 218 1-4 27-1
Kentucky 31-21 37 14 31 130 7-8 9-3
Liberty 41-19 32 40 64 37 10-10 12-2
Texas State 36-24 43 28 32 20 6-11 13-2
Troy 32-29 35 39 8 3 7-12 5-3
Source: WarrenNolan.com.
Key: Non-conference RPI; Strength of schedule; Non-conference strength of schedule
Mercer had plenty of good on its resume: 44-15 record, 29-2 at home, a win over top-5 Georgia Tech late in the season. And the Southern Conference RPI was strong, ahead of Conference USA and Southland, among others, and far ahead of similar mid-major conference Coastal Athletic, Atlantic Sun and Big South.
In 2015, the Bears got an at-large bid with an RPI of 42.
But there were flaws as well.
While The Citadel launched itself into the top 40 after the second win and then winning the SoCon championship on Saturday after sitting at 51 following the second Mercer win, being run-ruled in the elimination game and being outscored 23-6 by the Bulldogs – and 31-15 in three tournament games - hurt.
Mercer had only five games against Quad 1 teams, tied for the third-fewest Quad-1 games of the top 50 in RPI.
The average RPI of teams Mercer beat is 162, fourth-worst of the top 50.
Part of the strength of schedule – mentioned plenty in the guesses - issue is that Mercer played 28 games – fully half of its regular-season schedule- against Quad-4 teams, second-most among the top 100 teams in Warren Nolan (Southeast Missouri played 31).
And 61.4 percent of Mercer’s wins came against Quad-4 teams. A conference sweep by non-NCAA candidate Western Carolina, a respectable top-70 team, didn’t help.
Mercer’s strength of schedule improved from 120 to 118 after the SoCon tournament, still the third-worst among the top 50 RPI, as per WarrenNolan.com.
From Baseball America Sunday night: “The tougher decision involved the Southern Conference after The Citadel stormed through the tournament and forced Mercer into the at-large pool. We ultimately kept the Bears in the field despite what would be the weakest nonconference strength of schedule among at-large teams. Why? Because first-year committee chairman Michael Alford effectively laid out the argument for Mercer himself before the season even began.
“In a September interview with Baseball America, Alford described himself as an “eye test” evaluator who believes RPI and resume metrics tell only part of the story. He emphasized the importance of committee members actually watching teams play and understanding who they are beyond spreadsheets and formulas. That philosophy, he said, was what led him to advocate heavily for Hawaii last season until the Rainbow Warriors faded late.
“ “The point is,” Alford told Baseball America in September, “if you aren’t watching the games, the RPI or strength of schedule might not lead you to Hawaii. Watching the games will.”
“Well, Mercer won 44 of its 59 games, went 15-6 in conference play and grades out as one of the strongest mid-major teams in the country by both offensive and pitching metrics. If you’ve watched Mercer play this year, it looks like an NCAA Tournament team. And, by the way, the Bears also sit at No. 28 in RPI entering Selection Monday. Leaving Mercer out would run directly counter to the philosophy Alford himself outlined before the season. We’re projecting that the committee will want to avoid that.”
And the magazine had Mercer as a 3 seed at Chapel Hill facing Tennessee.
D1Baseball.com had Mercer as the No. 65 team, aka the first one out. On3.com had Mercer among the last four in (with TCU, East Carolina, and Virginia Tech) and as the third seed in Atlanta. USA Today had Mercer the No. 3 seed in Gainesville.
Recent postseason history wasn’t a boost to the program’s otherwise solid reputation. Entering this year’s conference event, Mercer is 4-6 in its last 10 SoCon tournament games, getting outscored 93-75.
The Bears are still 4-6 in their last 10, outscored 107-82.
Mercer was hoping for its fifth NCAA Tournament bid under head coach Craig Gibson, two while in the Atlantic Sun (2010 and 2013) and two in the Southern (2015, 2019).