The playoff scenario is quite simple, really ... skip the debate stress until kickoffs. Then? Oh my

          People still don’t get it. Or don’t remember. Or change their minds. Or just can’t exist with a hint of objectivity. Or not be paranoid.

          Our topic is the college football playoffs, a general scenario that has inexplicably – OK, maybe it’s not inexplicable - no matter the format.

          It’s not just about the record.

          It’s not just about the resume.

          It’s not just about one loss.

          It’s not just about winning the division or conference title.

          It’s not just about margins of victory.

          It’s not just about head to head results.

          Not, not, not, not, not. Never has been.

          Please understand that. It’s not complex. Every year, the names and scenarios change, yet all the parameters and logic and discussions are pretty much the same.

          Granted, the weekly discussions and hyperbole and all are just wastes of breath until this weekend. We have one weekend left, and not a single scenario will change until those games are played. Not a single scenario changed from bedtime Saturday until kickoffs, so the hours of what ifs are just astounding wastes of time and energy.

          We’ll know when it’s time, and there’s no amount of deep thought that will change or predict the outcome of games. Even now, with one big ol’ day left, there’s a huge amount of things that can happen.

          You must utilize some logic and objectivity. Do so, and you’ll not waste time on an abstract topic that absolutely won’t change during the week, and you’ll sleep better, until gameday.

          There are legitimately eight teams left that the panel will realistically consider for four spots: Clemson, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Auburn, Alabama, Georgia, Miami and Ohio State.

          Why not Penn State? Two losses – both quality – and didn’t win division, can’t win conference title. Are the Nittany Lions more deserving of consideration than Ohio State, which has that huge loss to Iowa? Today, yes, but not if OSU beats Wisconsin.

           PSU doesn’t have a chance to improve its stock, OSU does. There’s the difference. That, and too many teams ahead of the Nittany Lions.

           Why not TCU? The Horned Frogs to have a chance to improve their stock with a win over all-but-in Oklahoma, but they can’t improve it enough to overcome the teams in front, because the SEC winner is in, the ACC winner is in, the Big Ten winner may be in, and the runners-up in the SEC and ACC – especially if they are Georgia and Clemson – still have better resumes.

          If TCU beats Oklahoma by 30 … See, never mind, because that won’t happen. It drops out the Sooners, but doesn’t lift TCU nearly enough.

          And that’s about it. Nobody from the Pac-10 has a shot – Southern Cal doesn’t gain anywhere near enough if it beats lower-ranked Stanford - and even an unbeaten Central Florida team can’t come close to leaping high enough.

         “But they’re undefeated!”

          OK – typing slowly here – would you rather play UCF or any of the dozen imperfect teams ranked ahead of them? Gee, Georgia lost by 23 and UCF is undefeated, bring on the Dogs. Ohio State got hazed by mere Iowa, so come on over, Buckeyes.

Right.

          So now the scenario becomes margin of victory in these conference title games. And there’s no reason to debate much more.

          Whoever wins Georgia-Auburn is in. Georgia can lose and still make it, Auburn can’t.

          Oklahoma and Wisconsin win, they’re in. Obviously.

          “But Wisconsin …”

          But they’re undefeated!

          Stop.

          As per the Sagarin Ratings, Wisconsin’s strength of schedule is mighty comparable to pretty much the rest of the contenders. Of that group, Clemson has the toughest, just ahead of Auburn.

          The Badgers lone “weak” win was by 14 over Illinois. They’re average win over five bowl-eligible teams is 14.8. Alabama’s average win over five bowl-eligible teams is 15.6.

          Georgia’s five such wins are by 19.4 points. Clemson beat seven bowl-bounds by 17.1. But that loss is to a 4-8 team ...

          Wisconsin didn’t lose to a 4-8 or 5-7 team like Clemson and Miami did. Or by 31 to a 7-5 team like Ohio State did.

          The Badgers took care of business in a power conference and finally earned a final four spot. But if they lose, they’re out.

          You wanna play Wisconsin or you wanna play UCF? All records are not, have never been and never will be, equal.

          Please remember that.

          The ACC game is huge. The ACC could get left out if Auburn wins a nailbiter and both teams play fairly well, and Oklahoma and Wisconsin win. Yes, Clemson – which is a very iffy No. 1 – could get left out even with a win, and that – depending on the scenario – would be the right call.

          Tonight's poll: Clemson and Oklahoma will be 1-2 in some order - OU deserves it more, frankly - and then it'll be tight with Wisconsin, Auburn, Georgia, Alabama, Miami and Ohio State after that in whatever order. The door remains open for pretty much anything.

          And actually, that door is already open.

          The reality is that Alabama and Ohio State should be very clearly on the staying-home side of the bubble. But if the Badgers and Sooners lose ...

          Is Ohio State’s win over Wisconsin more relevant than the Buckeyes’ big loss to Iowa? And/or a close loss to not-in-consideration Penn State? Conversely, Alabama’s lone loss is to possible SEC winner Auburn, and Georgia’s two losses could be only to the SEC champ. And that sure means something, more than losing to Syracuse and losing to Pitt.

          “For somebody who said there wasn’t much to really debate, you sure have been long-winded.”

          Well, yeah, but less so than the majority doing the written and oral debating. There aren’t nearly as many realistically “what if” scenarios to last all week.

          So, for planning, partying and paranoid purposes, here’s Saturday’s schedule.

          At 12:30 p.m. is TCU and Oklahoma in Arlington, Texas.

          At 4 p.m. is Georgia and Auburn in Atlanta.

          So pace yourself and update your remote’s batteries, because Miami-Clemson and Ohio State-Wisconsin are both at 8 p.m.

          Wow.

          Maaaaan, the juice for kickoff of those two games when they know the scenario after those first two games? Hopefully those who go will have a charged phone and know to hold it horizontally – really, gotta still explain that to people? – when videoing any antics.

          By 8, fans of Georgia, Auburn and Alabama will have a second favorite team for a few hours.

          Alas, most will still be confused for awhile as to who that team should be.

          We may not have classic games on Saturday, but we will have epic stress.