HSFB 2019: Who’s going to win this week’s football games?
Last week: 21-6
Season: 181-52, 77.19
Within 7 points of margin: 7; 54 for the season
Upset specials: 0-2
A note: The Sports Report policy is to max out picks at 39 points although some games could earn a predicted margin of victory in the 40s and 50s.
Games of the Week
Class 5A
Warner Robins (8-1/3-0) at Veterans (8-1/3-0)
More of an old-school matchup than people think. The Demons are more balanced on offense, moreso than the vast majority of teams in the state. Veterans is lining up and coming hard on the ground. Both teams have defenses that bring some lumber. One big difference might be a foot, that of Veterans kicker Daniel Gibbs, who can drill it.
TSR pick: Warner Robins by 4
Jones County (9-0/6-0) at Stockbridge (7-2/4-2)
Will the visitors’ sided be a traveling Barking Lot? The Greyhounds have locked up the top spot in the region. Now, a perfect regular season is on the line. Hard not to get up for that.
TSR pick: Jones County by 16
Class 4A
Mary Persons (4-5/2-2) at Howard (5-4/1-3), Thursday, Ed Defore
The view here that Howard was the second-best team in the region, until West Laurens dispelled of that belief. And predictions for a rebound win since then have not been good predictions. The streak was broken last week against Spalding – good time to play the Jaguars – to stay alive. Now? The Bulldogs are on a two-game losing streak, their second of the season. Big? Howard has never beaten Mary Persons, which hasn’t lost three games in a row since 2006, the last time it lost six games, and hasn’t has a losing region record since 2000. And what impact does a rainy night have? Man, this is a best-of-7 coin flip.
TSR pick: Howard by 2
Perry (6-3/4-0) at West Laurens (8-1/4-0)
The Panthers are off their biggest win in years, big because the program has been such a coaching roller coaster and paid for the instability with the inability to be clutch. Last week, they were – although there was apparently plenty of skepticism, based on the empty seats on the home side – with a last-minute win over a team they hadn’t beaten since 2010. Kevin Smith is Perry’s four head coach since then. Now, as for playing a team that knocked out Mary Persons, disrupted Howard’s season, and has outscored its four region opponents by an average of 43.5-6.8. Ouch. It’s a mighty massive order for Perry to perform on a big stage two weeks in a row and in what should be, weather aside, a pretty sporty atmosphere.
TSR pick: West Laurens by 16
Class A
Aquinas (8-1/5-1) at Mount de Sales (9-0/5-0)
Aquinas is grateful to be in this, because if it weren’t for another mess at Hancock Central, Lincoln County would be make a few turns instead of going to Tattnall. But the Irish, who haven’t had a losing season since 2008 and have lost only two first-round games since a 2011 quarterfinal run, won’t play grateful, they’ll play expectant. So is Mount de Sales, home to the most dynamic offensive player in the region who has more company in the “weapons” category.
TSR pick: Mount de Sales by 4
The Matchups
Class 6A
Houston County (4-5/0-3) at Northside (3-6/0-3)
Being at this point isn’t all that much of a surprise. That the Eagles would be a double-digit underdog is. That kind of underdog at home, a surprise. Everything that’s led Northside to this record and these scoring numbers is a surprise. The Eagles winning would, yes, be a surprise. If Houston County comes out flat and cocky, though, Northside will be very revived, and revived enough to win.
TSR pick: Houston County by 19
Class 3A
Peach County (8-1/5-0) at Westside (6-3/4-1), Ed DeFore
This tends to be a decent game. The Trojans won by 16 last year, 18 in 2016 and five in 2015. But it was by 28 in 2017 and 33 in 2014. The real question: Can Westside avoid being Peach County’s seventh straight – seven – running-clock victim?
TSR pick: Peach County by 30
Class AA
Washington County (6-3/3-2) at Dublin (9-0/5-0)
JaQues Evans has scored more points – 23 x 6 = 138 because the key number is “23” touchdowns – in the last four games. Washington County has given up 20 more points all season. Now, 158 points is nice, but 138 is absurd. Dublin goes for its first perfect regular season since 2006, and the Golden Hawks are off a stunning home loss.
TSR pick: Dublin by 29
Temple (5-4/2-3) at Lamar County (6-3/2-3)
Goodness, from such a good start to having to scratch and claw in the finale to make the playoffs. The Trojans are on a three-game losing streak, and Temple is off a 17-point win over Spencer. Will Lamar County get a 12th-man boost in trying to break a two-year streak of missing the playoffs?
TSR pick: Lamar County by 2
The Games
Class 4A
Upson-Lee (3-6/1-3) at Spalding (1-8/0-4)
TSR pick: Upson-Lee by 14
Cross Creek (2-7/0-3) at Baldwin (3-6/2-1)
TSR pick: Baldwin by 22
Class 3A
Rutland (2-7/1-0) at Jackson (6-3/4-1)
TSR pick: Jackson by 23
Class AA
Bleckley County (7-2/4-1) at Southwest (3-6/1-4), Henderson
TSR pick: Bleckley County by 27
East Laurens (1-8/0-5) at Northeast (4-5/2-3), Thompson
TSR pick: Northeast by 28
Social Circle (2-7/0-6) at Monticello (2-7/2-4)
TSR pick: Monticello by 12
Oglethorpe County (2-7/1-5) at Putnam County (4-5/3-3)
TSR pick: Putnam County by 17
Class A
Central Talbotton (1-8/0-5) at Crawford County (2-7/1-4)
TSR pick: Crawford County by 11
Manchester (7-2/4-1) at Dooly County (4-5/3-2)
TSR pick: Manchster by 24
Greenville (3-6/1-4) at Hawkinsville (2-7/1-4)
TSR pick: Greenville by 22
Marion County (7-2/4-1) at Macon County (6-3/4-1)
TSR pick: Marion County by 12
Taylor County (4-5/2-3) at Pacelli (5-4/2-3)
TSR pick: Pacelli by 4
Lincoln County (7-2/5-1) at Tattnall (5-4/3-2)
TSR pick: Lincoln County by 18
Washington-Wilkes (5-4/4-2) at Stratford (4-5/3-2)
TSR pick: Washington-Wilkes by 2
Warren County (6-3/4-2) at FPD (4-5/3-2)
TSR pick: Warren County by 11
Greene County (2-7/2-4) at Wilkinson County (1-8/1-4)
TSR pick: Greene County by 20
GMC (3-6/1-5) at Twiggs County (0-9/0-5)
TSR pick: GMC by 5
GISA
Bethlehem Christian (1-8) at Trinity Christian (2-7)
TSR pick: Trinity Christian by 8
John Milledge (9-0/1-0) at Augusta Prep (0-9/0-1)
TSR pick: John Milledge by 38
Pinewood Christian (7-1/4-0) at Westfield (3-7/1-2)
TSR pick: Pinewood Christian by 24
Gatewood (7-2/1-0) at Piedmont (3-5/1-0)
TSR pick: Gatewood by 29
Thomas Jefferson (6-2/1-2) at Brentwood (8-2/4-0)
TSR pick: Brentwood by 24